Talking Points Group 2008 AFL Grand Final Preview - Geelong v. Hawthorn news

Well, the 2008 AFL Grand Final is upon us already yet it seems as though Round 1 was starting only a few weeks ago. What is clear, though, is that the last game of the year will be played between the two best sides of the year. Geelong, who have been a step ahead of the rest all year, and Hawthorn, who are peaking at the perfect time, come together in what hopefully will be the closest game of this year's finals series. Given that 29 points has been the closest game thus far, this might not seem like a tough ask.

So, we ask, can these teams give footy fans the nail-biter we are all dying to see?

Geelong Cats (Centrebet: $1.42 at time of publishing)

Deserving favourites, Geelong has been the team-to-beat all year. They have winners and potential game-breakers all over the ground - midfielders (Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel), forwards (Steve Johnson and Mathew Stokes) and defenders (Matthew Scarlett and Andrew Mackie) to note just a few. Geelong has won a remarkable 42 of their last 44 games and with very few injuries, they are a formidable force.

What else can we say about Geelong? Look at their record and you get the full picture. They are the real deal and they'll most likely go back-to-back. Whoever their opponent was going to be this year, it was always going to be a battle between David and Goliath.

Hawthorn Hawks (Centrebet: $2.90 at time of publishing)

Up until this week, most people would have thought that Lance "Buddy" Franklin would need to kick somewhere around 10 goals for Hawthorn to be a serious contender to Geelong. However, with Franklin only having the one major in Hawthorn's dominant 54-point win over St Kilda, this thought has been hit for six. This, though, doesn't mean Franklin doesn't have an impact. He takes the best defender (or two... or three) and provides crumbing opportunities for his co-forwards.

But let's not just talk about Franklin. Hawthorn have a host of stars - Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman, Brad Sewell and even rookie Cyril Rioli - all who can wield significant influence during a game. And let's not forget about their veteran midfielder Shane Crawford who, at 34 years of age, will no doubt be feeling the nerves as he runs out on the MCG surface for his first Grand Final. He will surely provide a much-needed motivational boost to his teammates.

If Hawthorn are to win, they need to tackle hard and run hard. If they do that, and have a bit of luck, they could just yet snatch this one away from Geelong.

Momentum and Form

Geelong has been the in-form team for the past two years, but has momentum just began to swing in favour of Hawthorn? Well, that depends on whether you can measure momentum in just one week, as the preliminary final stage is the only time that Hawthorn has looked more dominant than Geelong - with Hawthorn easily dispatching St Kilda and Geelong defeating the Western Bulldogs in unconvincing and un-Geelong-like fashion.

However, who can forget last year. Geelong dominated all year only to just scrape through their preliminary final matchup with Collingwood by five points. They then went on to absolutely annihilate Port Adelaide by 119 points in the Grand Final to claim their first Premiership in 44 years.

Prediction

Geelong by 35.

Hawthorn are playing great footy and there is no doubt that they can win, however, Geelong are still Geelong and for Hawthorn to win, Geelong would have to be off their game quite a bit. And with the stage being only the biggest game of the year with Geelong going for back-to-back flags, for them to slip now seems highly unlikely.

Worth a Punt

Geelong -15.5pts.

I'm tipping Geelong to win comfortably and with Betfair currently paying around $1.93 for a 16 point or more Geelong win, I think that's worth a punt!